Telco & utilities
Telco & utilities
Making forecasts to optimize the electricity grid management
Terna is one of the European leaders in the management of electricity transmission grids. Its mission is to keep the power grid always balanced and in optimal operating conditions. Our collaboration has resulted in an algorithm capable of producing accurate forecasts. These predictions support operators in making prompt and effective grid management decisions.
- Description and benefits
Guaranteeing the perfect functionality of the network is a critical mission that requires continuous operational choices, both in response to exceptional events as well as for maintenance activities. Lacking a system that allows sharing of each single operator knowledge, the decisions’ effectiveness depends exclusively on the degree of experience of the field operators. The electrical network is a complex system that generates a lot of data, which can be collected and historicized. We have analyzed the available data, developed mathematical models capable of identifying the significant phenomena, and implemented a forecasting system to support the operators in taking the best decisions.
Early action
Operators can react in time, thanks to long-term forecasts
More reliable decisions
Percentage error in power transit forecast versus actual has been reduced to 15%
Interpretable forecasts
Not only the forecast of the current transit value is available, but also the interpretation and weighting of which phenomena generated it
Deepening case study
Long-term forecasts with machine learning
We have developed an algorithm able to produce forecasts on the current flow of all the lines under study, with hourly granularity, for the entire following year. Our solution exploits an innovative system of ensembling models, where the accurate short-term forecasts based on weather or energy market outcomes are integrated with the long-term ones based on seasonality, holidays, and recurring events, through advanced discriminative machine learning algorithms.
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