Demand Prediction: sales forecasting for over-the-counter (OTC) medicines

Need

A major pharmaceutical company approached us to optimise the planning of its marketing campaigns for over-the-counter medicines. The main challenge is to accurately forecast demand in a highly dynamic market influenced by external variables such as seasonality, epidemic trends, and changing consumer behaviour. The goal is to maximise the availability of medicines during periods of peak demand, avoiding waste or shortages and improving the effectiveness of promotional activities.

Solution

We developed a forecasting model based on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning algorithms, integrated with mathematical modelling techniques. This system analysed large amounts of qualitative data (such as changes in consumer behaviour) and quantitative data (such as historical sales and seasonal variables) to predict demand more accurately. The model was designed to be flexible and adaptable, to simulate different scenarios and quickly respond to market changes.

Benefits

  • Accurate forecasts: more accurately anticipate seasonal demand peaks, providing the team with a solid foundation for timely and informed decision-making.
  • Strategic planning of production and marketing distribution: the company can optimise stock management, effectively coordinate logistics, and launch targeted campaigns during periods of peak demand, reducing waste and lost sales.
  • Greater responsiveness to market fluctuations: the model is flexible and adaptable, enabling the company to respond quickly to external variables, such as changes in consumer behaviour or sudden fluctuations in disease outbreaks, thus improving operational continuity and product availability.
  • Reduced effort required for demand forecasting.
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